Trump vows no attack on Iran before US midterms

Trump’s pledge

On Thursday, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would not launch an attack on Iran before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. He added that the United States is engaged in “productive discussions” with the Islamic Republic, which he described as being in a “very bad condition, both economically and militarily.”

Hormuz traffic claim

Trump also claimed that 22 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night, with none coming from or going to Iran. The figure has not been independently verified.

Nuclear weapon statement

In the same post, Trump asserted that “Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”

Context of the conflict

The U.S. and Israel struck Iran in late February, effectively closing the Hormuz strait. The U.S. re-imposed a blockade in July after a brief ceasefire. Fighting resumed in early September when U.S. forces struck rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, prompting Iranian missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

Political backdrop

Trump’s public stance on the elections has shifted over the past month. Earlier in September he said he was “not affected by the election” and that the war would end soon after voting. He also noted that U.S. oil prices were unlikely to fall before polling day.

Unverified claims

The oil volume figure and the assertion that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon remain unverified by independent sources.