Iran’s alleged involvement in RAF Fairford incident raises questions about UK security

Incident at RAF Fairford

Five men from London drove up in three white vans near RAF Fairford on 27 September. One of the men called 999. All five were arrested in Whelford, a village next to the airbase, and released on police bail a day later after no explosives were found or a discernible plot discovered. Two additional men were arrested on suspicion of terror offences and also released on bail.

Alleged Iranian involvement

UK officials have suggested that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may have coordinated the incident. The IRGC has previously targeted the Jewish community in the UK and Europe with arson attacks on synagogues. The Prime Minister said there were “strong indications” that Iran played a part, and the Met Police chief said more progress would be seen in the investigation.

Precautionary measures

In response to the incident, the United States withdrew the 12 B-1 bombers that had been stationed at RAF Fairford. The decision was described by Rich Knighton, head of the UK armed forces, as an operational move to reduce risk. The withdrawal came despite British scepticism about Iran’s capability to conduct a drone raid on a secure facility far from Tehran.

Assessment of threat

Experts have expressed doubt that Iran could mount a realistic military attack on RAF Fairford. Dr Antonio Giustozzi of the Royal United Services Institute argued that piloting first-person view drones used in Ukraine requires extensive training and that a one-way mission would be difficult to execute. Nonetheless, the US and UK took precautionary steps to mitigate potential threats.